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Mechanical industry: the development and regulation, space and rhythm of the judge
Releaseman:Yeziliang      Browse number:1654Times    Key Words:development adjustment      Time of issue:2010-12-30

          2010 is basically after China entered into industrialization era machinery industry best year: high growth and low inflation, high profits. With domestic investment in fixed assets related engineering machinery, machine tool industry sales 40-million emerging strategic industries - track traffic equipment industry technology constantly breakthroughs. In particular, engineering machinery industry, earnings growth generally reach more than 50%, meanwhile, almost all businesses are launched refinancing and acquisitions expansion plan, further boosting of equipment requirements. Economic recovery, while expansionary fiscal policy extrusion also begins to appear, loose monetary policy is also to a certain extent, thrusting the asset price bubbles.
         "1025" early to ensure national expanding domestic demand of key establishs project under construction and smooth completion and benefit. According to the historical features, "five-year plan" start in fixed asset investment general relatively high, such guesstimation 2011 fixed asset investment about also have 20% growth. Tightening liquidity can inhibit the commodity prices hype. Rates increase enterprise's financing cost and restrain investment, but only interest rate hikes on machinery industry profit influence is relatively minor and lagged behind. Contraction liquidity inhibit aggregate demand rapid growth, but similar 2004 economic brakes phenomenon is unlikely to occur again.
           High-end gear manufacturing benefit from economic restructuring, beating the index, industry development and policy regulation is space and rhythm of the argument. In urbanization, the new economy and the trend of globalization, engineering machinery, rail transportation equipment and the energy mining equipment and other high-end gear manufacturing long-term. However, short-term tightening liquidity machinery industry growth will fall. "Next year, global economic recovery, raw material prices will rising slightly, the machinery industry profit level in next appear has slipped back a bit similar 2010 super-high growth is not likely to continue. Layout high-end gear manufacturing internationalization strategy
           To develop the new economy, accelerating the equipment manufacturing industry upgrading, nuclear power generation equipment, rail transport equipment, environmental protection equipment benefit for the next 10 years will focus on development of 7 big strategic new industries. By 2015, strategic emerging industry form healthy development, coordinate the basic structure, promote the upgrading of the industrial structure role enhanced markedly, GDP to achieve the proportion of 8%, by 2020, strategic emerging industry GDP to achieve the proportion of about 15 per cent. We think that the new economic low-carbon economy era, energy conservation and environmental protection technology in machinery widely used in the industry, promote the upgrading of the equipment manufacturing industry. China is expected to future ten years nuclear power market total investment will reach 9,800 billion yuan, the year average investment is 10 million yuan, is expected to 2010-2012 nuclear investment 687, 1252, 1644 billion yuan, the year compound rate 70%, nuclear power equipment and parts demand will remain high growth. Marine engineering, China's current in design and manufacture with South Korea, Brazil, Singapore, there was a big gap deep-sea exploration has become a global energy mining tendency, China's "1025" during ocean engineering investment will be doubled.
           The urbanization deepening, investment is the forerunner of consumption, engineering machinery and rail transport equipment benefit. "1025" plans to put forward: "we will promote balanced development among regions, and actively yet prudently proceed with the urbanization". 2010 western development of engineering machinery, Inner Mongolia, start-up over-the-top xinjiang and sichuan province, west province investment and boosting demand of equipment for the 2010 contribute very. We think of the urbanization and the consumer upgrades and infrastructure facilities are inseparable. The long term in urbanization trend, real estate, guarantee the stable growth supplies should alleviate social contradictions room as a form of reflected, essence or housing demand huge.
            China high-end gear manufacturing internationalization strategy layout has begun, construction machinery industry first layout. Although some low-end mechanical products for labor, environmental cost factors and production has global first, but actually in the equipment manufacturing industry international strategy has just begun, financial crisis on China's export a heavy blow, but the financial crisis and reduced the cost of the implementation of China's internationalization strategy, acquisition and merger beginning to rise. The equipment manufacturing industry is expected to become one of China's competitive industry, engineering machinery, railway equipment industries are expected to seek hegemony global, it will change the equipment manufacturing industry global competition pattern, of course, would like to see China equipment manufacturing internationalization strategy propulsion.
            We prefer sany heavy industries (600031), liugong (000528), China southern railway (601766), China north car (601299), cimc group (000039) leading enterprises internationalization path.
           The tone of short-term in policy regulation, construction machinery industry growth dropped, market with shock for the Lord; Railway equipment big blue chip start-up catalyst is mor bidding, Energy equipment is a large category, including oil mining equipment, nuclear power equipment and coal mining equipment, global economic recovery and energy prices are rising prices forward-looking indicators.
           Concern emerging strategy and energy equipment combination
           We focus on launch emerging strategy and energy equipment combination: energy equipment combination (cimc group, shandong ink dragon (002490), zheng plow (601717)), high iron equipment combination (China southern railway, China north car, times new material 600458)), engineering machinery strategic advantage combination (trinity caterpillar, liugong).
           Petroleum drilling equipment industry - next year will rise the boom of. In today's high oil prices and uplink expected under the influence, the drill activities quantity is may last in historic highs operation. Semi-submersible type drilling platform rent expense on a few months before although have dropped, but still at a higher level, and platform utilization in a rising trend. Marine engineering "1025" planning investment doubled, valued deep-sea exploration of Marine engineering equipment.
           Coal machinery and mechanization of industry conformity - benefit rate of ascension. By "1025" initial coal investment growth and equipment renewal, stimulate demand outbreak plow industry will be maintained a fast development. Specialized and service upgrade will is the further development of key, has the strength and resources consolidation is the strong will win.
           Track traffic equipment, the country emerging strategic industry. Developing high-speed railway is national strategy, without a doubt. Existing emu orders will be completed in 2011 delivery, is expected to 2011 will launch a new round of emu bidding, because localization rate increase and production efficiency increase, c.m still expected to maintain

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